The OOSTA Pro Model
How the OOSTA Pro Model works
Our proprietary model reads every player prop and shows you which way it leans, and why.
Every prop on OOSTA Pro runs through our in-house model. It starts with the market price across major sportsbooks, removes the bookmaker’s margin, then adjusts for each player’s recent form, snap share, teammate injuries, and game-day weather. The result is a clear lean (Over, Under, or No lean) with a confidence level and the reasons behind it.
Step 1
Start with the market
We gather the price for every prop across major sportsbooks, then remove the bookmaker’s built-in margin to find the market’s fair chance of each outcome.
Step 2
Add recent form
We look at how the player has actually performed against that line in recent games, and at his snap share: a player whose time on the field is clearly rising or falling is about to see his role change. For touchdowns, we also count how often he gets the ball inside the 20 and at the goal line. Small samples are weighted carefully, so one big game doesn’t swing the result.
Step 3
Factor in injuries
When a teammate at the same position is out or doubtful, more volume usually shifts to the players still on the field. The model accounts for that, and flags the player’s own injury status.
Step 4
Adjust for weather
Strong wind, heavy rain, and snow at outdoor stadiums tend to hurt passing and scoring and help the run game. Forecasts from the National Weather Service feed straight in.
Step 5
Compare to the best price
Our estimate is compared with the best available price. If there’s enough of a gap, you get a lean (Over, Under, or Yes for touchdowns) with a confidence level: Lean, Moderate, or Strong.
On the NBA side
NBA props start the same way, with the market’s fair chance. Then the model adjusts for each player’s minutes and usage rate, how the opponent defends his position, the pace both teams play at, back-to-backs, and who’s out: when a player sits, his minutes and shots are spread across the teammates who replace him, starters and bench alike.
No black box
Every lean comes with the reasons behind it: the fair chance we estimate, the best price available, the player’s recent numbers, and any injury or weather factors. You see exactly what’s driving it, and when nothing stands out, we say so: “No lean.”
Where you’ll see it
- • Player Props: browse every prop free. Pro members see the model’s lean under each player.
- • Best Value Picks (Pro): the model’s strongest spots for each game, in one place.
- • Wizard Builder (Pro): pick your games and a style, and it pulls the model’s best matching leans and Value Picks, with the reasons.
- • Weather (free for everyone): kickoff forecasts for every outdoor NFL game, with Pro alerts when a forecast changes.
Already a member? Open Player Props
Model leans are estimates, not guarantees. For information and entertainment only. Not betting advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.